A techno-economic analysis method for modern coal chemical projects under the condition of market uncertainty was established. With financial internal rate of return

payback period of investment

financial net present value

after-tax profits and the CO2 emissions per unit of after-tax profit of coal to olefins investment project as the main objective indicators

and with polyolefin price

coal price

construction investment and carbon tax rate as four variables characterizing market uncertainty

the techno-economic analysis models of coal to olefins were established. Based on these models

the surface graphs and contour graphs of the simulated equations were drew. The sensitivity and uncertainty analysis were further carried out. Sensitivity analysis shows that the influence of polyolefin price and coal price changes on each objective indicator is most remarkable. The economy of coal to olefins technology and the influence of various risk factors on the objective indicators under the condition of market uncertainty were quantitatively analyzed using the Monte Carlo simulation method. The results show that coal to olefins project is still profitable under the condition of market downturn

when polyolefin prices are 6000-8000 CNY·t-1

and coal prices are 100-300 CNY·t-1.