炼化行业转型路径分析建模研究进展与展望

于贺江; 谢艳丽; 曹煜恒; 陈定江; 周文戟; 朱兵

doi:10.11949/0438-1157.20260513

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炼化行业转型路径分析建模研究进展与展望

综述与专论 | 更新时间：2026-05-20

- 炼化行业转型路径分析建模研究进展与展望
- Research progress and prospects of modeling for transition pathways in refining and petrochemical industry
- 化工学报 2026年
- 作者机构：
  
  1.清华大学化学工程系，北京 100084
  2.中石化节能技术服务有限公司，北京 100120
  3.化学工程与低碳技术全国重点实验室，北京 100084
  4.清华大学循环经济研究院，北京 100084
  5.中国人民大学应用经济学院，北京 100086
- 作者简介：
  
  于贺江（2002-），男，博士研究生，yuhj23@mails.tsinghua.edu.cn
  谢艳丽（1976-），女，硕士，正高级工程师，xieyl.sem@sinopec.com
  朱兵（1967-），男，博士，教授，bingzhu@tsinghua.edu.cn
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.11949/0438-1157.20260513
  中图分类号： TQ 01;TE 65
- 收稿：2026-04-13，
  
  修回：2026-05-20，
  
  录用：2026-05-20，
- 稿件说明：
移动端阅览
于贺江, 谢艳丽, 曹煜恒, 等. 炼化行业转型路径分析建模研究进展与展望[J/OL]. 化工学报, 2026.

YU Hejiang, XIE Yanli, CAO Yuheng, et al. Research progress and prospects of modeling for transition pathways in refining and petrochemical industry[J/OL]. CIESC Journal, 2026.
于贺江, 谢艳丽, 曹煜恒, 等. 炼化行业转型路径分析建模研究进展与展望[J/OL]. 化工学报, 2026. DOI： 10.11949/0438-1157.20260513.

YU Hejiang, XIE Yanli, CAO Yuheng, et al. Research progress and prospects of modeling for transition pathways in refining and petrochemical industry[J/OL]. CIESC Journal, 2026. DOI： 10.11949/0438-1157.20260513.

摘要

随着现代化产业体系建设和经济社会发展全面绿色转型加快推进，炼化行业正处于绿色低碳高质量发展的关键转型期，基于模型开展科学评估并系统分析行业转型路径至关重要。炼化行业近中期同时面临自身生产侧严峻的减排压力和下游消费侧产品结构变革带来的深刻影响，长期来看基于清洁能源和替代原料的“未来炼厂”愿景备受关注。基于对炼化行业转型路径分析研究的系统梳理，综述了聚焦生产侧、兼顾生产侧消费侧以及面向“未来炼厂”等三个方面的建模方法进展，总结提出四个主要观点：（1）综合建模生产侧和消费侧的转型趋势及其相互作用，对于全面评估行业转型路径具有重要意义；（2）在生产侧建模中打开工艺黑箱构建炼厂原型，是科学评估不同炼厂差异化转型路径的重要基础；（3）在消费侧，在社会经济系统背景下建立行业产品需求未来情景，有助于评估外部需求变革背景下的行业结构转型；（4）面向未来，在建模评估中统筹“未来炼厂”愿景与存量资产的渐进式演进，对构建和评估务实可行的转型路径至关重要。

Abstract

As the comprehensive green transformation of economic and social development accelerates

the refining and petrochemical industry is entering a critical period of transition toward green

low-carbon

and high-quality development. In this context

scientific assessment and systematic analysis of industry transition pathways based on modeling are of great importance. Considerable research has employed different modeling approaches

each with a distinct emphasis

to investigate various aspects of this transition process

including the deepening of green and low-carbon development on the production side

the rapid evolution of product demand structures on the consumption side

the fast development of waste material recycling

and the emergence of “future refineries” based on clean energy and alternative feedstocks. This paper reviews modeling methods for analyzing transition pathways in the refining and petrochemical industry and systematically summarizes research progress in three areas: studies focusing on the production side

studies integrating both production and consumption sides

and studies oriented toward “future refineries.” On this basis

four main conclusions are proposed: (1) integrated modeling of transition trends on the production and consumption sides

as well as their interactions

is of great significance for comprehensively evaluating industry transition pathways; (2) in production-side modeling

opening the process black box and constructing refinery prototypes provide an important foundation for scientifically assessing differentiated transition pathways for different refineries; (3) on the consumption side

situating the industry within the broader socioeconomic system to develop future product demand scenarios helps evaluate structural transformation of the industry under changing external demand conditions; and (4) looking ahead

coordinating the vision of “future refineries” with the gradual evolution of existing assets in modeling and assessment is crucial for constructing and evaluating pragmatic and feasible transition pathways.

关键词

Keywords

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