Impact probability of domino effect caused by explosion fragments in chemical tank area

ZHANG Xinmei; CHEN Guohua

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Impact probability of domino effect caused by explosion fragments in chemical tank area

更新时间：2025-12-10

- Impact probability of domino effect caused by explosion fragments in chemical tank area
- CIESC Journal Issue 11, Pages: 2946-2953(2008)
- 作者机构：
  
  华南理工大学安全科学与工程研究所
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：
  CLC：
- Online First：05 November 2008，
  
  Published：05 November 2008
- 稿件说明：
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ZHANG Xinmei, CHEN Guohua. Impact probability of domino effect caused by explosion fragments in chemical tank area[J]. CIESC Journal, 2008, (11): 2946-2953.
DOI：

ZHANG Xinmei, CHEN Guohua. Impact probability of domino effect caused by explosion fragments in chemical tank area[J]. CIESC Journal, 2008, (11): 2946-2953. DOI：

摘要

爆炸碎片是化工区多米诺事故的重要诱因。从爆炸碎片飞行过程的规律性及碎片产生抛射的不确定性出发，分析化工罐区爆炸碎片破坏性及事故连锁机理。将储罐爆炸瞬间视为一个多方过程，通过求解多方过程状态方程，推导了爆炸碎片初速度计算公式；通过求解碎片飞行的加速度方程并结合边界条件，得到了爆炸碎片飞行距离及飞行速度计算公式；以爆炸碎片飞行规律性分析得到的相关公式为目标函数，分析影响爆炸碎片飞行距离及飞行速度不确定性的随机变量，通过随机抽样并对目标函数不同计算结果的出现频率进行累积，得到爆炸碎片在不同飞行距离上的累积击中概率。通过分析重大危险源单元（major hazard installation unit，MHIU）之间的一次影响及多次影响，构建化工罐区多个重大危险源发生爆炸碎片多米诺影响效应的概率计算模型，揭示爆炸碎片产生、抛射、飞行及打击目标的内在机理，相关分析结果能够为化工园区多米诺事故风险分析奠定基础。

Abstract

Uncertainties and regularities coexist in the projection and flight process of explosion fragments.The transient explosion of chemical vessels was viewed as polytropic process.Initial projection velocity of fragments was deduced by combining the polytropic process state equations and the work done by explosive gases pressure.Flight distance and flight velocity equations were obtained by solving acceleration equations and determining boundary conditions.Taking these equations as the objective functions

the uncertainty factors were analyzed and viewed as random variables.Impact probability in different distances could be obtained by random sampling of such random variables and accumulating the frequency in a specific flight distance.Then domino effect impact probability model was proposed by studying the secondary influence and multiple influences caused by fragments.The study reveals the mechanism of fragments generation

projection

flight and impact on target.The results lay a foundation for analysis of domino impact risk caused by explosive fragments in chemical industrial complex.

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