Abstract: The problems existing in the mechanism models include difficulty in obtaining the parameters, and most of the parameters had little relationship with production which reduced its practicability. The partial least-squares method (PLS) was used to establish the model to predict paper strength based on a production line of a corrugated paper mill. By selecting parameters and their data aided with mechanism analysis, we built the model and obtained the key parameters. The results showed that the model had a good precision that its Pearson's value was 0.732, root mean square error (RMSE) was 276 N·m^-1, and mean relative error (MRE) was 5.17%. Besides, the model had a good analytical ability that the key elements could be interpreted very well from the mechanism angle.

Key words: chemical processes, paper sheet tensile strength, product engineering, partial least-squares, prediction

摘要： 为了解决抗张强度机理模型中参数难以测量、偏离工厂生产变量、实际指导关联性差的问题。以一瓦楞原纸生产线为研究对象，先通过经验分析筛选影响纸张抗张强度的生产过程变量，在收集对应变量的生产数据后，应用偏最小二乘法建立抗张强度预测模型并对重要影响变量进行分析。结果表明该模型具有较好精度，其皮尔逊相关系数r=0.732，均方根误差RMSE值为276 N·m^-1，平均相对误差MRE值为5.17%。同时得到了影响纸张抗张强度的6个重要生产过程变量，通过机理分析和现场验证，发现结果具有较好的现实吻合度。

关键词: 化学过程, 纸张抗张强度, 产品工程, 偏最小二乘法, 预测